In a recent blog post published on December 13, VanEck, a renowned asset manager, shared its expectations for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. According to the company’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, the cryptocurrency bull market is expected to reach a "medium-term peak" in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year.
Projected All-Time Highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum
At the cycle’s apex, VanEck projects Bitcoin (BTC) to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above $6,000. Other prominent projects, such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), could exceed $500 and $10, respectively.
Retreat Before the Rally
Before reaching these highs, VanEck expects to see a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer. This period of consolidation is expected to occur before the market continues its upward trajectory.
Signs of Speculative Excess
Sustained funding rates above 10% on BTC perpetual futures exchanges would indicate "speculative excess," suggesting that the crypto market has reached a local top, according to VanEck. This phenomenon occurs when investors become overly bullish and start paying high premiums for leverage, indicating excessive speculation.
Historical Trends
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, also expects BTC’s price to sink by 30% before resuming its bullish run. Historical data trends show that Bitcoin may still correct as much as 30% before it reaches its cyclical top. This correction is partly due to the fact that United States markets generally correct after presidential inaugurations.
2025 Market Drivers
VanEck also predicts that in 2025, the US will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve and that regulators will approve more crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), hastening institutional crypto adoption. With new SEC leadership, multiple new spot crypto ETPs are expected to be approved, while Ethereum ETPs will include staking, and both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs will allow in-kind transactions and redemptions.
Increased Institutional Adoption
On December 12, Sygnum Bank, a crypto-focused asset manager, said that institutional adoption could trigger "demand shocks" next year, causing BTC’s spot price to spike. Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has stated that up to a 2% portfolio allocation is "reasonable" for investors who wish to hold BTC.
Conclusion
VanEck’s predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025 are based on its extensive research and analysis of historical trends and market data. While there may be some corrections along the way, the asset manager expects the bull market to reach all-time highs by the end of the year. As the market continues to evolve and mature, it will be interesting to see how these predictions play out.
What Do You Think?
Do you agree with VanEck’s predictions for the cryptocurrency market in 2025? Share your thoughts and opinions on this topic by leaving a comment below.
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