Saxo Forecasts the Most Outrageous Market Predictions for 2025 from Brexit to Nvidia

The world of finance is inherently unpredictable, and even the most seasoned investors can be caught off guard by unexpected events. To challenge conventional thinking and spark debate among financial experts, Saxo Bank has released its annual Outrageous Predictions (OPs) list for 2025. This series of far-fetched yet intriguing events are designed to highlight potential scenarios that could shake the global financial system to its core.

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What Are the Saxo Outrageous Predictions?

The Saxo OPs are not meant to be taken as official forecasts, but rather a thought-provoking exercise in exploring the possibilities of what could happen in 2025. These predictions are intentionally outrageous and designed to challenge conventional thinking. According to John Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist at Saxo Bank, "The Saxo Outrageous Predictions are not exactly news and not exactly real — at least not yet."

Saxo’s 2025 Outrageous Predictions

Nvidia’s Value Soars to Twice That of Apple

Nvidia will become the most profitable company of all time by 2025, fueled by the launch of its revolutionary Blackwell chip, a 208 billion transistor innovation that will outperform its predecessors by 25 times in energy efficiency. As demand for AI capabilities surges, Nvidia will dominate the sector.

Potential market impact: Nvidia shares could surpass $250, although concerns about its growing market share and regulatory scrutiny could dampen its prospects.

2. Pound Erases Post-Brexit Discounts vs. Euro

By 2025, the pound (GBPEUR=X) will rise above 1.27 against the euro — erasing its entire post-Brexit discount. The UK’s fiscal policies are seen as more growth-friendly, with a new Labour government prioritizing growth while curbing inefficient public sector spending.

Potential market impact: The pound’s appreciation would provide a boost to domestic investment and growth, seeing the euro/sterling rate fall as low as 0.750, contributing to a more inflationary economic environment.

3. US Imposes AI Data Centre Tax

The growing demand for AI data centers drives power prices to unprecedented levels in the US, prompting popular outrage. Local governments impose heavy taxes and fines on tech giants to offset the soaring electricity costs, especially for households.

Potential market impact: The US will likely see a surge in power infrastructure investments, with companies like Fluor (FLR) and Tesla (TSLA) benefiting. Long-term natural gas prices could double, contributing to a more inflationary economic environment.

4. Trump 2.0 Blows Up the US Dollar

A second Trump administration dramatically alters US trade and economic policies, including imposing massive tariffs on imports and introducing an Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

While such policies could trigger a spike in the US dollar, they could also lead to a scramble for alternative currencies.

Potential market impact: The crypto market, including bitcoin (BTC-USD), could quadruple, surpassing $10tn. The US dollar might fall 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold, while the economy continues to reflate.

5. A Natural Disaster Bankrupts a Large Insurance Company

A catastrophic storm in the US triggers insurance claims far exceeding the $40bn seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. One of the largest US insurers, unprepared for climate change risks, could go bankrupt, causing panic in the industry.

Potential market impact: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) shares rise as Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and the company gains market share.

6. A Second Trump Administration Imposes AI Data Centre Tax

7. Trump 2.0 Imposes AI Data Centre Tax

8. A Second Trump Administration Imposes Elon Musk-Run Department of Government Efficiency

The US faces an energy crisis as the growing demand for AI data centers drives power prices to unprecedented levels. This leads to popular outrage, prompting local governments to impose heavy taxes and fines on tech giants to offset the soaring electricity costs, especially for households.

Saxo’s Archives: A Look at Past Outrageous Predictions

In the past, Saxo’s OPs have proven to be surprisingly accurate. Some of the scenarios from previous years that turned out to be closer to the truth than initially thought include:

The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check (OPs for 2022)
Volatility spikes after flash crash in stock markets (OPs for 2018)
Bitcoin triples in value, from the current $700 level to $2,100 (OPs for 2017)
UK seen leaning toward 2017 exit from the EU (Brexit) on UKIP election landslide (OPs for 2015)
Gold corrects to $1,200 per ounce (OPs for 2013)

Conclusion

The Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2025 are designed to challenge conventional thinking and spark debate among financial experts. While these predictions may seem far-fetched, they highlight potential scenarios that could shape the global economy in 2025. As we have seen in the past, sometimes the world catches up and becomes just the right amount of outrageous for the predictions to become true.

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