In recent months, there has been growing optimism among industry experts and investors about the possibility of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States. According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the odds of this happening are even higher than what is currently predicted by popular betting markets.
Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of a US Solana ETF Listing in 2025
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket released its forecast for the likelihood of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025. According to their data, the odds are around 77%. However, Sigel believes that this forecast is "underpriced" and that the actual probability may be even higher.
Sigel’s Optimism: A Reflection of Industry Expectations
Sigel’s optimism is not an isolated view within the industry. Many experts believe that the election of President-elect Donald Trump in November 2024 has paved the way for more crypto ETF listings in the US. Trump’s pro-crypto stance and his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital" have sent a positive signal to investors and regulators alike.
Prediction Markets: A Look into the Future
For those who may not be familiar, prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events. The prices of these contracts fluctuate dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket’s forecast is just one example of how prediction markets can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential future developments.
Update: Polymarket’s Projected ETF Listing Odds Reach 84%
As of January 2, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds for a US Solana ETF in 2025 have increased to approximately 84%. This represents a significant uptick from the initial forecast and suggests that market sentiment is increasingly bullish on the prospect of a SOL ETF listing.
Background: VanEck and 21Shares’ Bid for a Spot Solana ETF
In June 2024, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted applications to US regulators seeking permission to list spot Solana ETFs. However, in August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged their plans, citing concerns that SOL may be considered a security rather than a commodity.
The Key to Success: Conforming to a ‘Grantor Trust’ Structure
Industry analysts believe that the success of proposed Solana ETFs may depend on their ability to conform to a similar structure used by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, which are currently permitted to trade on US exchanges. The grantor trust structure is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity.
Trump’s Presidential Win: A Green Light for Crypto ETF Listings?
The election of President-elect Trump in November 2024 has been seen as a green light by industry experts, who believe that his pro-crypto stance will lead to increased regulatory support for crypto ETF listings. In fact, analysts predict that more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs are waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
Sigel’s Previous Comments: The Odds of a SOL ETF Listing Are "Overwhelmingly High"
In November 2024, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly stated that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high." This reflects his continued optimism and confidence in the prospects for a Solana ETF listing.
The Popularity of Polymarket: A Hub for Crypto Betting
Polymarket is currently the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. This reflects the growing interest and engagement among investors and enthusiasts in prediction markets and crypto betting.
Bullish Bettors: 2025 Shaping Up to Be a Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
The collective wisdom of bettors on Polymarket suggests that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. With BTC and ETH expected to hit all-time highs, several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US, and increasing regulatory support, investors are optimistic about the prospects for growth and returns.
Conclusion: The Odds Are In Favor of a Solana (SOL) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Listing in 2025
In conclusion, while there are still challenges to be overcome before a Solana ETF listing can become a reality, the odds are increasingly in favor of this happening. With industry experts and investors alike expressing optimism about the prospects for crypto ETF listings in the US, it will be interesting to see how events unfold in 2025.
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